Article

Your Holiday Forecast

Because Getting Barreled is on Everyone's Holiday List

| posted on December 23, 2010

Hopefully you find yourself in this exact position this holiday season. Photo: Ellis

If you are anything like us over here at SURFER, then decent waves are at the top of your Christmas list. Here is a holiday forecast from Surfline to help you make the most of you’re time off from work/school. Happy Holidays from SURFER!

California Outlook
We’ll see a series of medium size W to WNW mid-period groundswells, as well as local southerly windswell, from Christmas Day through at least the early part of next week for California. A passing front will bring variable onshore wind and some rain as we move through the weekend, but conditions will dry out and clean up early next week as high pressure builds back over the region.

Going a little further out, yet another solid WNW ground and wind swell mix looks possible around the 29th-30th, although conditions will need to be closely monitored, as onshore wind and rain could again be an issue. Fading and smaller surf looks likely for the last couple days of 2011.

East Coast
A strong area of low pressure looks to take shape along the Gulf Coast states on Christmas Day before pushing northeastward up the East Coast/through the western Atlantic. Though there is still some uncertainty in the eventual track and timing of this system, medium range model guidance is in agreement this low pressure system will become a strong storm system early next week.

This will set up the potential for rising windswell for breaks along the East Coast the day after Christmas and into the early part of next week. Because this storm system looks to quickly lift out, we are expecting dropping surf for the Northeast and Southeast regions towards the middle part of next week. It does look like Florida has the potential to see this windswell/swell linger into mid next week.

Beyond that, high pressure is expected to take control, so we should see things quiet down for the last couple of days in 2010.

Caribbean
A strong low pressure system located south of Newfoundland will remain in place during the second half of the week before lifting towards the North Atlantic.  Swell from this system is already impacting the Caribbean and it looks like we will see plenty of surf in the water through Christmas Day with lingering swell fading into the early part of next week.
Strong low pressure that moves up the East Coast/through the western Atlantic early next week will set up another round of potentially solid swell for the Caribbean mid-to-late next week before the surf fades to close out 2010.

New South Wales
Looking fairly slow over the holiday weekend but we are expecting some fun SSW swell for the early-to-middle part of the week between Christmas and New Year. Going further out, there is a chance of some more swell out of a southerly direction by New Year’s weekend. The tropics have not been very active for the early cyclone season and most models are not showing any tropical cyclone development over the next several days.

Southwest/West coast of Australia
The South Indian has been calming down over the past few weeks in terms of that strong storm activity that it is used to displaying, but we have had a few sources for surf and we just had a small but strong fetch way out in the SW Indian Ocean, so that is good news.

The holiday weekend looks pretty slow, although conditions do look good with offshore flow. Early through mid next week looks more promising, as the above mentioned storm has set up a medium size SW groundswell. Fading and smaller surf takes over for the second half of the week, with New Year’s weekend also looking pretty slow at this time. However, we will keep an eye on a possible tropical cyclone that may set up some NNW swell for later in the week between Christmas and New Year’s, but we will will have to see how that possible cyclone develops and behaves before a concrete call can be made.

–Kevin Wallis