World Title Implications

The state of the Tour after the Coldwater Classic

| posted on November 08, 2012

Joel Parkinson will go into Pipe ranked No. 1 and a world title favorite, but Slater and Fanning will be nipping at his heels. Photo: Glaser

There were a select few pivotal moments during the recent Coldwater Classic in Santa Cruz that stole the spotlight during the middle rounds. Not until the latter part of Finals day did the attention shift to who would be taking home the golden head of Jack O’Neill and his eyepatch as a trophy. With the event so late in the year, some heats held more weight than others, directly affecting the fate of the five surfers who were battling for the No. 1 spot.

Round 2, Heat 2. Mick Fanning vs. Jadson Andre
Early in Round 2, Mick Fanning went blitzkrieg on a wave for a 9.73, setting a familiar tone of dominance that at this point in the year we’ve come to expect. No one mentioned this to Jadson Andre, who dialed in a 6.6 and a 7.5 for the first of many upsets in the round. Mick’s early exit all but closed the door on his shot at the title.

Round 2, Heat 3. John Florence vs. Matt Wilkinson
The form that saw Wilko through to the Final started in this Round 2 heat. In the shadow of Mick’s loss, Wilko made quick work of John Florence, eliminating him from the contest and from the title conversation. Florence will still be a natural favorite at Pipeline, particularly if this heat left a chip on his shoulder.

Round 5, Heat 4. Kelly Slater vs. Adriano de Souza
Prior to this heat, Slater owned this match-up, with an 11-3 record versus Adriano de Souza. However, de Souza had won the last two, and needed to advance to stay in the title hunt. In the competitors’ tent before the heat, an old, hirsute Santa Cruz Wizard bashed a giant gong as Slater left for the water, which in Santa Cruz is apparently meant to be some sort of blessing. It was weird, and it didn’t work, as Slater continued to struggle in the unpredictable surf and de Souza snuck by for his third win against him in a row.

Slater never seemed to figure out Steamer Lane; he'll look much more familiar at Pipe come Dec. 8. Photo: Lowe-White

Quarterfinal 2. Joel Parkinson vs. Travis Logie
Immediately after his Round 5 loss, Slater set up with his entourage on the edge of the competitors’ tent to watch Parko’s Quarterfinal heat. The result would have a direct impact on their battle for the world title, a Parko loss minimizing the consequences of Slater’s equal 9th finish. In the final minute, with Parko needing a score, he had priority over Logie as a set rolled in. He paddled for the first wave but it closed out on him, leaving the door open for Logie to advance through to the Quarters and keeping the title race open through to Pipe. Slater left his seat in the tent, went back to Santa Cruz Santa, and banged the gong in joy.

Quarterfinal 4. Matt Wilkinson vs. Adriano de Souza
In what had become characteristic Wilko at this point in the contest, he sat off the point late in the heat on the verge of upsetting Adriano de Souza. De Souza needed to make the Finals of this contest to have a shot at the title. Both surfers were riding a wave as time expired, but Wilko’s 5.07 proved enough to overcome de Souza’s 6.57. Wilko delivered and de Souza is out of contention. Brazil waits at least another year for a world title.

Beachside Commentary. Sage Erickson vs. Malia Manuel.
We hope they both requalified for the next O’Neill event.

Mick Fanning left Santa Cruz ranked third, but shouldn't be counted out in Hawaii. Photo: Lowe-White

So where does this leave us for Pipe? Joel Parkinson remains atop the rankings, with Kelly Slater in a close second. In a distant third sits Mick Fanning, whose odds to win the title at Pipe are slim. But I’m saying there’s a chance. Here are the scenarios, from the ASP, that could play out in Hawaii and will determine this year’s champ. Potentially, the 2012 ASP World Title could be decided on the final day of the Pipe Masters. Yew.

If Parko finishes 5th or lower at Pipe:
– Slater needs a 5th or better to win the title.
– Fanning needs to win Pipe to win the title. (if Slater finishes worse than 5th)

If Parko finishes 3rd at Pipe:
– Slater needs a 3rd or better to win the title.
– Fanning needs to win Pipe to win the title. (if Slater finishes worse than 5th)

If Parko finishes 2nd at Pipe:
– Slater needs to win at Pipe to win the title.
– Fanning can’t win the title.

If Parko wins at Pipe:
– He wins the 2012 World Title.

  • Cody

    Here’s hoping for a Parko Kelly final!

  • miguel

    There is something I don’t get, Parko is the leader right now, right? So he has a point difference from Slater right now, right?, so howcome would Slater becomes champion getting 5th or 3rd if Parko finish 5th or 3rd? I mean, if they end up at the same possition, shouldn’t Parko becomes Champion?

  • Alex

    Parko v. Kelly would be an insane final, but what happened to john john????

  • mayor

    miguel , the points figure in adjusted ratings. The two lowest placings are tossed out for each surfer. Based on that, Kelly is ahead by 250 points. Nevertheless, he has still has some low placings (13th, 9th) which he’s holding on to. The final computations based on pipe results requires Slater to match or surpass Parko by one place based on slaters low finishes in events.

  • P.j. Hahn

    This will be one for the ages! I’m almost thinking about taking off work just so I can watch the webcast! John John had a chance but is out now. No doubt he’s still a MAJOR threat at pipe. Can’t FUC&ING wait!!

  • ruddy

    nice photos!

  • Over It

    Everybody knows that kelly is going to win it because hes the crowd favorite. They gift him a title almost every year like he was the Julius Caeser of surfing.

    I wish Andy was still around…now THATS exciting surfing! He would have blown slater out of the water and lit a fire under his ass.

    I hope Parko or Fanning wins it. I’m sick to death of kelly getting over scored and the guys who REALLY shred getting dealt a shitty score all because the crowd adores him (case in point) dusty getting rorted @ CWC. What the f@ck was that all about? Dusty s air was insane!!!…yet failed to score..hmm something reeks of corporate foulness here. What gives asp?

    I’ll tell you what. Its about the money hungry surf companies who want an exciting showdown in Hawaii at the expense of surfers who derserve to be acknowledged as the true shredders that they are. Is there ANYONE left who doesn’t kiss his royal butt? It makes me wanna puke!!

  • Trigster

    Here’s to epic, classic Pipepine for several days in a row during the waiting period. I too might have to take off work if its a Kelly/Parko final. My question is this: THE x-factor…the spirit of Andy will be on Parkos side.

  • paul

    Parko is this generation’s gary elkerton (3 times wct runner-up). he’s in great shape and his head’s in the right space – I would love to see him shake off the demons and finally win this thing

  • miguel

    All right then, I guess it’s not as simple as adding and subtracting points. Even though I respect Slater surfing and I am actually a fan, I would really enjoy if Parko can come up with a first championship victory. Thanks a lot mayor.

  • Whamo

    Let’s hope for a big West swell at Pipe.

  • Blackout SD

    Not sure that the statement of Parko gets 2nd and Kelly gets 1st: Kelly Wins WT is correct.

    Currently Parko has 53900 Points going into the las event and Slater Has 50700

    2nd Place is worth 8000 Points and 1st is worth 10,000 Points. If Parko gets 2nd at Pipe that will give hime 61900 Points. Even if Slater Won that would only give hime 60700 Points.

    So it should say if Parko Gets 2nd he is the World Champ.

    Please explain if I missed anything. Been following the tour all year and am pumped to see it come down to pipe!!!!

  • mayor

    Blackout- here’s how it works:
    the points figure in adjusted ratings, not the current totals. The two lowest placings are tossed out for each surfer. Based on that, Kelly is ahead by 250 points. Nevertheless, he has still has some low placings (13th, 9th) which he’s holding on to. The final computations based on pipe results requires Slater to match or surpass Parko by one place based on slaters low finishes in events

  • Ben

    Based on prior performances at Pipe, my odds break down something like this for the title: Kelly 60%, Parko 35%, Mick <5%. JJF in the mix is a HUGE problem for any of these guys in the draw. Personally I'd like Parko. IMO he is a better surfer than Mick, not as good as Kelly, but deserves it this year for incredible consistency, a ton of 9+ rides, etc.

  • Daniel

    I don’t know who’ll be crowned the champ this year and frankly that doesn’t matter to me ‘cuz the best and most upcoming raw talent on tour will hit the number one spot in 2013 and the world will see the most fantastic display of progressive surfing in professional contest ever. Here is a lttle something of what I mean: