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JOEL PARKINSON, 25, AUSTRALIA

Vitals: 70% win rate in ’06. Average event result of 10.36.

Behind the Numbers: In the past three years, he’s never lost to Mick Fanning (6-0) or Taj Burrow (3-0). Matter of fact, Parko has a winning record vs. everyone in the Top 10, including Kelly Slater (4-3) and Andy Irons (5-8). The problem is, he loses to everyone else.

Heading into 2007: The stats above say it all. Parko has no problem getting pumped for the heavies, but he never buckles down for the average round-three heat. Like Fanning, he’s earned the highest respect of his peers, many of whom think he’s the best surfer on tour right now. But Parko surfs so free and easy, he often forgets he’s in a heat, and the judges overlook his best surfing as a result. Meanwhile, his biggest competitive threats are usually in his company back on land. Parko, the family man, can’t shake off a long night and show up pissed and ready like he used to, and his competition knows it. Standing alone this year and getting excited at the right moments will help, but he must crank it up a notch early on. Just pretending like he cares will go a long way.

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