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TOP 45 REVIEW SWEET 16
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These guys will constantly challenge the top five, and at times exist there. They can be counted on to end the year in the top 16 or higher. |
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Most telling stat: 66.6% win ratio against the Top 5
Win Rate: 65.3%
2-0 over Joel Parkinson
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5. Bede Durbidge 25, Currumbin, Australia
Bede Durbidge is more blue-collar than headliner—a testament to the high-level performers buried in the trenches of the ASP World Tour. Each year, almost without fail, one blue-collar performer breaks out, cracking the ranks of the Top Five: Phil MacDonald, Keiren Perrrow, Danny Wills, and Mick Campbell to name a few. During the 2007 season opener at Snapper, Durbidge staked an early claim on that position, blazing his way to the final where he lost to Fanning. But Durbidge, motivated by being sponsor-less early on, would best the Top Five with a 4-6 record in 2007—going two-for-two against Joel Parkinson along the way. (In fact, his record vs. the Top Five was a few percentage points above his record vs. the rest of the field.) His success culminated in a Pipeline Master’s championship and Durbidge becoming the first Australian to win the Triple Crown since Mike Rommelse 10 years earlier. Yes, Pipeline was small, but Sunset and Haleiwa were both treacherous enough to prove that his triumph in Hawaii was no fluke. Naturally, Fantasy Surfer players smart enough to play Bede were laughing last year, but what to do in 2008? Just understand that Durbidge is the complete package. Of all the blue-collar guys who’ve preceded him to these heights, he’s got the best all around repertoire, and the best chances at repeating the feat, or at least getting close. |
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Win ratio: 68%
Vs Top 5: 60%
At his best: In and around the barrel.
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9. Dean Morrison 28, Coolangatta, Australia
Dean Morrison’s ninth place finish in 2007 was his best WCT result since he first qualified for the tour in 2002, a result of many long hours spent in the water. Dingo surfs a ton, and this, coupled with his fiercely competitive nature, makes up for any technical shortcomings he may have. A great tube rider, Morrison excels when conditions allow for it, which was exhibited in Chile when he took down Slater in what was arguably the heat of the year in 2007. His 60% win ratio against the top five is only marginally lower than his overall win ratio of 68%, showing that he has the temperament to mix it up with the top dogs as well as the consistency to be a pillar on the tour. He is a past winner at his home break, Snapper Rocks, and can be a real threat at Teahupoo when its on song, so his price tag is justifiable, albeit a little inflated. Dingo believes he belongs in the top ten, but when you look at the names below him, one can’t help but feel that his days there are numbered. Look for his stock to lower as the year progresses. |
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Most telling stat: 0-3 against Flores
Win rate: 58.13%
Vs. Top 5: 66.7%
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11. C.J. Hobgood 28, Melbourne, Florida
CJ had a rough start last year when he posted a couple of very uncharacteristic second and third round losses. But that’s where it ended. CJ made a big surge after the third event and continued hacking away, finishing the year at the 11th spot. CJ is ridiculously talented in everything from slop to gaping Chopes, but with so much new talent flooding onto the tour, many feel that CJ’s time to win a second world title has passed. His numbers in 2007 reflect on this sentiment, with CJ only managing to amass a 58.13 percent win ratio through the year. The remarkable thing about that statistic however, is that the bulk of his losses were recorded against the new blood (he went 0-3 vs. the Rookie of the Year Jeremy Flores) and only lost one of the three encounters he had with the Top 5. CJ is a savvy competitor and although his surfing is not quite as sharp as it should be, his experience should keep him comfortably in the Top 16. |
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Win ratio: 54.3%
Vs. Top 5: 37.5%
1-1 vs. Slater
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12. Kai Otton 28, Tathra, Australia
2007 was a big year for Kai Otton. After squeaking his way onto the tour with a 15th-place finish in the WQS ratings in 2006, few would have considered the 28-year-old goofyfooter a Rookie of the Year threat. But in the course of one season, he’s gone from a relative unknown to an entrenched face on the World Tour. Apparently, Otton’s entire act is much better suited to the World Tour. By year’s end, he was a feared competitor in anything that the ocean would throw at him. Kai finished third at Teahupoo and second in Brazil, proving his surfing is versatile—a potent combination of featherweight airs, lead-footed gouges, and balls-to-the-wall commitment. He earned himself a respectable 54% win rate while going 3-8 vs. the Top Five. But his counterparts say the most dangerous thing about Otton is how much he appreciates where he is. That’s why we think there’s room to grow here, as he’s still undervalued. |
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Win Rate: 55%
Win Rate Against The Top 5: 0%
Best result: 5th at Trestles and Spain.
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14. Taylor Knox 36, California, USA
Like several of his peers, Taylor Knox’s plan for 2008 will closely mirror Fanning’s operation in ’07. He’s working with coach and trainer Matty Griggs, he’s surrounded himself with people who’re helping his cause, and he’s apparently more focused than ever. Considering the length of Knox’s competitive career, the latter says a lot. However, if he plans on cracking the top five, he needs to start beating them first, something he was unable to do last year. Knox went 0-3 against Mick Fanning, Kelly Slater, and Joel Parkinson, the three top five members he met. He also fell regularly to less-intimidating names. His best results were Quarterfinal finishes in France and Spain, which means he has the ability to get on a roll, but if he plans on going beyond that, which apparently he does, and finish in the top five or higher, he needs to find a way to beat the best of his peers. Maybe the training will help. |
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Most Telling Stat: Was second in the world before being injured
Win Rate: 60%
Win Rate Against The Top 5: 100%
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15. Damien Hobgood 28, Florida, USA
Damien Hobgood finished the 2007 season in 15th place, but here’s something to remember: When he injured his shoulder last year after the final at Arica, Chile, the fourth stop of the season, he was rated second in the world. A Quarterfinals appearance at Bells, a win at Teahupoo, and a second in Chile were what got him there, and if he hadn’t been forced to sit out four events due to injury we might have been looking at a different title race coming into the last few events. But that’s just conjecture. What we do know is that Hobgood beat top fivers Mick Fanning and Joel Parkinson when he met them before he was hurt. Make of that stat what you will, but it indicates that if Hobgood is healthy in 2008 and manages to re-find the roll he was on at the outset of ’07, he has the mental and physical ability to beat anyone on tour. |
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Most telling stat: Only won 2 first round heats in nine events.
Win ratio: 46.15%
Vs. Top 5: 20%
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18. Mick Campbell 34, Port Macquarie, Australiaa
Mick finished in the upper-half of the WCT melee by posting a respectable 17th overall last year. The compact goofy foot is a feisty competitor who has plenty of experience to back up his competitive flair. He went toe-to-toe with Slater and the Momentum Generation in the 90s, then faded off the tour. Instead of making a full go of re-qualifying, Campbell chose to strap on some gloves and the hit rings in Australia as a prizefighter, only to return to the World Tour in 2007 with a newfound fire in his belly. Campbell started off the ’07 season strong by posting a slew of solid results for the first three contests of the season, but was sidelined during the Chile event due to an injury and never really seemed to regain his momentum. Although not the most freakishly talented surfer on tour, Mick charges anything that is thrown his way, and has proven that he’s got the moxie to compete at the level and tear down a few of the top guys in the process.
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